Utilization Method and Effect Evaluation of Systems Thinking in Future Design: Comparative Analysis of Policy-Making Workshops in Local Governments

Abstract

The Future Design (FD) workshop (FDWS) is a discussion framework based on FD. The aim of FD is to activate a human trait called futurability, considering the preferences of future generations. Previous FD practices with the theme of policy-making in local governments have demonstrated this possibility. However, creating concrete proposals might depend on workshop participants’ abilities and emotions to perceive future society. By comparing two case studies, this study examines the effects of a method for utilizing a causal loop diagram (CLD), a tool for systems thinking, in FDWS to systematically draw the future society and activate discussions among the participants. CLD is a qualitative system model that helps identify the factors that lead to systemic problems and analyze the guidelines for solving them. Its effects on the performance of the FDWS discussion activity are evaluated. They are quantified by text mining analysis using participants’ remark records. Two case studies conducted at policy-making workshops in the local governments of Japan are examined. One is the FDWS in Kyoto City which adopted the proposed CLD utilization method, and the other is the FDWS in Suita City without CLD. The comparative analysis demonstrates that the proposed method makes the discussion livelier, less divergent, and more developed in the FDWS.