A COVID-19 model for local authorities of the United Kingdom

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2022-12-13 DOI:10.1111/rssa.12988

Swapnil Mishra, James A. Scott, Daniel J. Laydon, Harrison Zhu, Neil M. Ferguson, Samir Bhatt, Seth Flaxman, Axel Gandy

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引用次数: 22

Abstract

We propose a new framework to model the COVID-19 epidemic of the United Kingdom at the local authority level. The model fits within a general framework for semi-mechanistic Bayesian models of the epidemic based on renewal equations, with some important innovations, including a random walk modelling the reproduction number, incorporating information from different sources, including surveys to estimate the time-varying proportion of infections that lead to reported cases or deaths, and modelling the underlying infections as latent random variables. The model is designed to be updated daily using publicly available data. We envisage the model to be useful for now-casting and short-term projections of the epidemic as well as estimating historical trends. The model fits are available on a public website: https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local. The model is currently being used by the Scottish government to inform their interventions.

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英国地方当局COVID-19模式

我们提出了一个新的框架，在地方当局一级模拟英国的COVID-19流行病。该模型符合以更新方程为基础的流行病半机械贝叶斯模型的一般框架，其中有一些重要的创新，包括随机游走模拟再现数，纳入来自不同来源的信息，包括用于估计导致报告病例或死亡的随时间变化的感染比例的调查，以及将潜在感染建模为潜在随机变量。该模型被设计为每天使用公开可用的数据进行更新。我们设想该模型可用于流行病的现在预测和短期预测以及估计历史趋势。模型拟合可以在一个公共网站上找到:https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local。该模型目前正被苏格兰政府用来为他们的干预提供信息。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.