Analysis on the future runoff changes in Shiyang River basin based on genetic algorithm models

Abstract

According to observational data of temperature precipitation and runoff during the past 50 and more years in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River basin of the Qilian Mountains, we employ genetic algorithms and the automatic optimization method, as well as the man-machine dialogue method to build models of runoff response to temperature and precipitation changes. With these models, changes are calculated in runoff from the corresponding changes in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River basin mountain based on change trends of temperature and precipitation as well as the climate scenarios in future. The results show the runoff from the mountains is to decrease in the future due to the changes in precipitation and temperature; the extent of this decline depends mainly on the extent to which mountain precipitation declines.