Exploring long-term strategies for the german energy transition - A review of multi-Sector energy scenarios

Abstract

This article systematically compares 26 different scenarios of climate-friendly energy systems, aiming at a reduction of CO${}_2$ emissions of at least 90% for Germany in 2050. Technical strategies in terms of technology or energy carrier mixes in the end-use sectors industry, buildings, and transport as well as in the conversion sectors are examined. In addition, the consequences of those different strategies in terms of electricity demand, installed capacity for electricity generation, demand for synthetic fuels and gases (P2X), etc. are looked at. Furthermore, imports of electricity and P2X are compared. In conclusion, there is a wide range of transformation pathways that are projected for Germany, and there is far from consensus on how to technically achieve a reduction in CO${}_2$ emissions of at least 90% by 2050 in comparison to 1990 levels. This, in turn, illustrates that there is still much need for research and discussion to identify feasible and sustainable transformation strategies towards a “net zero” energy system for Germany.