An Agent-Based Model of the Spread of Devil Facial Tumor Disease in an Isolated Population of Tasmanian Devils

Abstract

The Tasmanian devil population is being reduced in the wild at an alarming rate due to an epidemic, which is the result of an unusual disease mechanism. Infected animals "inject" cancer cells into other devils, which then clone the cells, developing tumors. These tumors are invariably fatal. Field observers have developed hypotheses that include a life-history change for the species. It is hypothesized that this change has the potential to improve the population's survivability. An agent-based model of Tasmanian devils is used to evaluate these hypotheses. The model results suggest that the devils' intra-gender aggression as well as their aggressive mating practices render the life-history change hypotheses' correctness improbable.