Projections for the number of students in the Polytechnic Institute of Guarda: Application of a mathematical model

Abstract

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to apply a mathematical model, structured in classes, to estimate projections for the number of students for the Polytechnic Institute of Guarda (IPG) and its four schools for the period 2017–2022, based on the historical data from the period 2000–2016. The model has an internal dynamic that represents the flow of students who move from one to the next academic year, and an external dynamic that describes the flow of students who enter or leave the institution. Using the historical evolution in the period 2000–2016, three different scenarios are presented in order to quantify the number of students who will enrol in each school and in the IPG as a whole. We concluded that it is scenario 3 that presents higher enrolled students, projecting a continuous growth in the period under analysis. On the other hand, scenario 1 presents a small decrease in the number of students.