Dynamic Material Flow Analysis of Copper and Copper Alloy in Global Scale —Forecast of In-Use Stock and Inputs and the Estimation of Scrap Recovery Potential—

Abstract

The recovery of copper （ Cu ） from secondary sources has received much attention because of its scarcity of natural resources. In this work, we estimated the input, in - use stock and discard of copper and copper alloy during 1950 - 2015 in global scale, and forecast them until 2050. In addition, we estimated the potential of scrap recovery for copper / copper alloys. It was estimated that the total amount of in - use stock of copper and copper alloy were 177 , 000 kt and 44 , 200 kt in 2015, respectively. The in - use stock, discard and input of copper in 2050 will reach 381 , 000 - 588 , 000 kt, 15 , 400 - 22 , 200 kt and 18 , 990 - 33 , 000 kt, respectively, whereas those for copper alloy will reach 77, 500 - 134 , 000 kt, 3 , 020 - 4 , 680 kt and 3 , 760 - 7 , 200 kt, respectively. The copper content in recov - erable scraps of copper and copper alloy will reach 15 , 100 - 27 , 300 kt, and this accounts for 55 . 1 - 79 . 0 ％ of copper content in annual input of copper and copper alloy in 2050. The range in forecast was caused by the difference in the saturation amount