Winning and losing streaks in the National Hockey League: are teams experiencing momentum or are games a sequence of random events?

IF 1.1 Q3 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2021-05-07 DOI:10.1515/jqas-2020-0077

Gregory Steeger, Johnathon Dulin, Gerardo O. Gonzalez

引用次数: 3

Abstract

Abstract The Saint Louis Blues were hot at the end of the 2018–2019 National Hockey League season, winning eleven games in a row in January and February, and eight of their last ten. They parlayed this momentum to their first Stanley Cup Championship in franchise history. Or did they? Did the series of wins at the end of the season give the Blues the momentum needed to reach the pinnacle of the sport on June 12th, or was the Blues’ path to victory the confluence of a series of random events that fell in their favor? In this paper we apply entropy as an unbiased measure to further refute the idea of momentum in sports. We show that game outcomes are not dependent on previous games’ outcomes and conclude that the theory of momentum, across the season, is a fallacy that should not affect behavior.

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美国国家冰球联盟(National Hockey League)的连赢和连输:球队是在经历势头，还是比赛是一系列随机事件?

圣路易斯蓝军在2018-2019赛季结束时表现抢眼，在1月和2月连续11场获胜，在过去10场比赛中赢了8场。他们利用这种势头赢得了球队历史上的第一个斯坦利杯冠军。或者是真的吗?是赛季末的一系列胜利给了蓝军在6月12日达到这项运动顶峰所需的动力，还是蓝军的胜利之路是一系列随机事件的汇合，这些事件对他们有利?在本文中，我们应用熵作为一种无偏度量来进一步反驳运动中的动量观念。我们证明了比赛结果并不依赖于之前的比赛结果，并得出结论，在整个赛季中，动量理论是一个谬误，不应该影响行为。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS-

CiteScore

2.00

自引率

12.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (JQAS), an official journal of the American Statistical Association, publishes timely, high-quality peer-reviewed research on the quantitative aspects of professional and amateur sports, including collegiate and Olympic competition. The scope of application reflects the increasing demand for novel methods to analyze and understand data in the growing field of sports analytics. Articles come from a wide variety of sports and diverse perspectives, and address topics such as game outcome models, measurement and evaluation of player performance, tournament structure, analysis of rules and adjudication, within-game strategy, analysis of sporting technologies, and player and team ranking methods. JQAS seeks to publish manuscripts that demonstrate original ways of approaching problems, develop cutting edge methods, and apply innovative thinking to solve difficult challenges in sports contexts. JQAS brings together researchers from various disciplines, including statistics, operations research, machine learning, scientific computing, econometrics, and sports management.