Winning and losing streaks in the National Hockey League: are teams experiencing momentum or are games a sequence of random events?

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2021-05-07 DOI:10.1515/jqas-2020-0077

Gregory Steeger, Johnathon Dulin, Gerardo O. Gonzalez

引用次数: 3

Abstract

Abstract The Saint Louis Blues were hot at the end of the 2018–2019 National Hockey League season, winning eleven games in a row in January and February, and eight of their last ten. They parlayed this momentum to their first Stanley Cup Championship in franchise history. Or did they? Did the series of wins at the end of the season give the Blues the momentum needed to reach the pinnacle of the sport on June 12th, or was the Blues’ path to victory the confluence of a series of random events that fell in their favor? In this paper we apply entropy as an unbiased measure to further refute the idea of momentum in sports. We show that game outcomes are not dependent on previous games’ outcomes and conclude that the theory of momentum, across the season, is a fallacy that should not affect behavior.

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美国国家冰球联盟(National Hockey League)的连赢和连输:球队是在经历势头，还是比赛是一系列随机事件?

圣路易斯蓝军在2018-2019赛季结束时表现抢眼，在1月和2月连续11场获胜，在过去10场比赛中赢了8场。他们利用这种势头赢得了球队历史上的第一个斯坦利杯冠军。或者是真的吗?是赛季末的一系列胜利给了蓝军在6月12日达到这项运动顶峰所需的动力，还是蓝军的胜利之路是一系列随机事件的汇合，这些事件对他们有利?在本文中，我们应用熵作为一种无偏度量来进一步反驳运动中的动量观念。我们证明了比赛结果并不依赖于之前的比赛结果，并得出结论，在整个赛季中，动量理论是一个谬误，不应该影响行为。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.