Schedule risk analysis in construction project using RFMEA and Bayesian networks: The Cali-Colombia case study

Abstract

The projects in the construction sector are developed in complex and dynamic circumstances due to uncertainties and risks. The schedule risk is the probability that the project exceeds the initial programming, for which several methodologies are proposed; on the other hand very few of them have been used in countries where the economies are in development. This paper presents a case study of the construction industry in the city of Cali-Colombia, integrating the RMFEA prioritization method and the Bayesian Networks model for the schedule risk analysis in construction projects. It will be possible to identify the main own risks in this type of projects and the impact that they have in the probability of finishing the project on time.