Determinants of Interregional Migration Flows in Korea by Age Groups, 1995-2014

Development and society (Soul Taehakkyo. Institute for Social Devdelopment and Policy Research) Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI:10.21588/DNS.2015.44.3.001

Keuntae Kim

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Despite the growing importance of interregional migration at the local level in rapidly aging society, past literature overlooked the relationship between these two demographic phenomena. To better understand the determinants of interregional migration and its implications for population aging, this study estimated fixed-effects models derived from the gravity model of migration using population registration data. Contrary to theoretical expectation, economic determinants of migration showed similar patterns across three age groups. Other than the effect of crude marriage rate for young age group, life course variables showed inconsistent effects on migration. Trends in migration flows by geographical regions indicated that some provinces are in double jeopardy because their elderly population is increasing while the young population decreases. Visual inspection of migration systems drawn from social network analysis suggested that migration streams between Seoul and Gyeonggi overwhelms all other regions and that Ulsan and Jeju are isolated throughout the periods.

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韩国地区间人口流动的影响因素:年龄层，1995-2014

尽管在快速老龄化的社会中，区域间移民在地方层面的重要性日益增加，但过去的文献忽视了这两种人口现象之间的关系。为了更好地理解区域间迁移的决定因素及其对人口老龄化的影响，本研究利用人口登记数据估计了由迁移引力模型导出的固定效应模型。与理论预期相反，移民的经济决定因素在三个年龄组中显示出相似的模式。除了年轻年龄组粗结婚率的影响外，生命历程变量对迁移的影响不一致。按地理区域划分的人口流动趋势表明，一些省份面临双重危险，因为它们的老年人口在增加，而年轻人口在减少。从社会网络分析中得出的移民系统的直观观察结果显示，首尔和京畿之间的移民流压倒了其他地区，蔚山和济州之间的移民流在整个时期都是孤立的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Development and society (Soul Taehakkyo. Institute for Social Devdelopment and Policy Research)

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