The Sequentially Divergent-Convergent Development of Mortality

Abstract

This article aims to explore the convergence and divergence of mortality in different world regions along with factors influencing these developments. It identifies the most important deviations from global trends, explains their causes, and distinguishes world regions at risk of unfavorable demographic development resulting, for example, from excess male mortality or the failure to combat cardiovascular diseases. Finally, the article analyzes the divergent trends of mortality in the European post-socialist countries. The divergent-convergent development of mortality is understood as a sequential development, in contrast to traditional approaches, which study overall convergence and divergence trends, not their sequential course. Using the example of the development of the life expectancy at birth, the article shows that the phases of divergence and convergence are repeated.