After the Golden Age: A Long-Run Perspective on Growth Rates That Speeded Up, Slowed Down and Still Differ

Abstract

This paper contains an econometric analysis of international convergence in growth allowing for the possibility of several trend breaks. The results offer further evidence against strong hypotheses of convergence but demonstrate the existence of common trends among subsets of countries. Trend growth estimates for OECD countries have fallen since the early post-war period when catch-up was strong, but nevertheless are generally higher than before the Second World War. Taking these results together with evidence from historical research, it is argued that the recent growth slowdown should not be seen as sufficient reason to reject the hypothesis of endogenous growth. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester