Same, but Different? a State-Level Chronology of the 2014-2016 Brazilian Economic Recession and Comparisons with the GFC and (Early Data On) COVID-19 (preprint)

IF 0.6 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Economics Bulletin Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI:10.17632/M6JX255STV.1

Jefferson Lazzari Martinho Colombo

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

This paper identifies and discusses the regional heterogeneity of the Brazilian great economic recession of 2014-16 Specifically, we outline a state-level chronology of the recession by applying the Bry-Boschan algorithm, using the states' monthly index of economic activity as reference variables The results indicate that the recession lasted 32 months, and the economic activity fell (peak to trough) 11 8% for the average Brazilian state However, we find a significant heterogeneity regarding timing, duration, and magnitude of the recession -- on average, more industrialized states (with greater participation of the agricultural sector) entered before (after) and stayed more (less) in a state of recession We also find the dispersion, severity, and diffusion of the 2014-16 recession across states was far more significant than in the 2008-09 economic recession Finally, preliminary data suggests that the significant and widespread drop in regional economic activity following the COVID-19 shock is 12 7% and 77 1% larger than those observed in the 2014-16 and the 2008-09 recessions, respectively Our results have critical implications for policymakers

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相同，但不同?2014-2016年巴西经济衰退的国家级年表以及与全球金融危机和COVID-19(早期数据)的比较(预印本)

本文识别并讨论了2014-16年巴西经济大衰退的区域异质性，具体而言，我们采用Bry-Boschan算法，以各州的月度经济活动指数作为参考变量，勾勒出衰退的州级年表。结果表明，经济衰退持续了32个月，巴西各州的经济活动平均下降了11.8%。我们发现，经济衰退的时间、持续时间和程度存在显著的异质性——平均而言，工业化程度更高的州(农业部门参与度更高)在衰退之前(之后)进入衰退状态，在衰退状态中停留的时间更长(更短)。我们还发现，2014-16年经济衰退在各州之间的分散性、严重程度和扩散程度远比2008-09年经济衰退要显著得多。初步数据显示，与2014-16年和2008-09年经济衰退相比，2019冠状病毒病冲击后区域经济活动显著而广泛的下降幅度分别为12.7%和77.1%。我们的研究结果对政策制定者具有重要意义

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economics Bulletin ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

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