How (Not) to Predict the Future? Analysis of Several Pioneering Studies in the Field of Czech Political and Security Scenario-Building

Abstract

Predictive analysis is rare in the field of Czech security studies. For this reason, scenarios of world politics by Institute of International Relations (IIR) (2012-2017) as well as predictions by the think-tank European values (2016) constitute pioneering works worthy of attention. The article analyses these scenarios, focusing on their methodological aspects. The articles concludes by noting that IIR's scenarios are a welcome contribution to the field but the same cannot be said about scenarios of European values.