Development and simulation of a mathematical model to simulate the phase transmissibility ofCOVID19 in Morocco

Abstract

In this work we develop a new Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model to simulate the potential transmission of the COVID-19 virus in the population of Morocco. Our model is original in the sense that it contains parameters that depend on the confinement phases that Morocco has adopted so far. After developing the mathematical model COVID-19-Morocco we define a cost function to minimize with respect to the parameters. We then use genetic algorithms to optimize this functional. The numerical results we obtain confirm that our model is robust and can predict the evolution of the virus in Morocco.