Dynamic Bayesian Network-Based Escape Probability Estimation for Coach Fire Accidents

Abstract

Coach emergency escape research is an effective measure to reduce casualties under serious vehicle fire accidents. A novel experiment method employing a wireless transducer was implemented and the head rotation speed, rotation moment and rotation duration were collected as the input variables for the classification and regression tree (CART) model. Based on this model, the classification result explicitly pointed out that the exit searching efficiency was evolving. By ignoring the last three unimportant factors from the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the ultimate Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) was built with the temporal part of the CART output and the time-independent part of the vehicle characteristics. Simulation showed that the most efficient exit searching period is the middle escape stage, which is 10 seconds after the emergency signal is triggered, and the escape probability clearly increases with the efficient exit searching. Furthermore, receiving emergency escape training contributes to a significant escape probability improvement of more than 10%. Compared with different failure modes, the emergency hammer layout and door reliability have a more significant influence on the escape probability improvement than aisle condition. Based on the simulation results, the escape probability will significantly drop below 0.55 if the emergency hammers, door, and aisle are all in a failure state.