Impacts of climate change on aquaculture and human health

Abstract

There is little existing evidence of impacts on aquaculture that can be attributed to climate change. Several effects have been observed that could be related to a changing climate such as increased shellfish contamination, harmful plankton events and the establishment of non-native species, but it is not clear that a changing ocean climate is responsible for these effects. Given the current predictions, climate change is unlikely to have a significant effect on Scottish mariculture over the next decade. However, within the next 50 years or more, the forecast changes are likely to result in noticeable effects. Sea-level rise may reduce coastal habitat suitable for bivalve cultivation in the south of the region (where Scottish mariculture is undertaken). Rising average water temperatures will result in faster growth rates for some species (e.g. Atlantic salmon, mussels and oysters) but prolonged periods of warmer summer temperatures may cause thermal stress, particularly for cold water species (e.g. cod and Atlantic halibut) and intertidal shellfish (oysters). However, warmer waters may provide opportunities to culture new species, or species that are currently economically marginal in UK waters.