Performance assessment of a Persian Gulf wind and wave forecasting system

Abstract

ABSTRACT Data from three satellites (JASON2, CRYOSAT, and SARAL/AltiKa) and two buoys were used to examine the performance of wind and wave forecasting models in the Persian Gulf. The quality of the satellite data was first examined by comparing them with buoy data. Wind speed data from all three satellites were found to be close to in situ measurements; for wave heights, SARAL/AltiKa data showed the best comparisons. Model forecasts and buoy data indicated correlation coefficients between 0.72 and 0.86 for wind speeds and 0.85–0.94 for wave heights. The forecast was more accurate at the open sea buoy than at the coastal buoy. Relative to SARAL/AltiKa data, which was preferred for assessing modelled wave heights, correlation coefficients were between 0.86 and 0.90. For modelled wind speeds, correlation coefficients with the consolidated satellite dataset were between 0.80 and 0.88. Some anomalous results were partly attributed to the exclusion of air–sea temperature differences. The likelihood of a given forecast representing a given sea state was estimated. Generally, for lead times up to 48 h, a user could have a 78–92% expectation that a SWH forecast > 1 m would lie within ±30% of a sea-state represented by the SARAL/AltiKa measurements.