Susan K. Urahn, S. Bailey, Brandon Brockmyer, A. Davis, Brenna Erford, S. Fehr, L. Gross, Kil Huh, M. Murphy, R. Zahradnik, M. Atwell, Samantha Chao, J. Chapman, K. Dhungana, D. Lim, D. Benderly, Lauren Dickenson, Sarah Leiseca, J. Ratner
{"title":"Managing uncertainty.","authors":"Susan K. Urahn, S. Bailey, Brandon Brockmyer, A. Davis, Brenna Erford, S. Fehr, L. Gross, Kil Huh, M. Murphy, R. Zahradnik, M. Atwell, Samantha Chao, J. Chapman, K. Dhungana, D. Lim, D. Benderly, Lauren Dickenson, Sarah Leiseca, J. Ratner","doi":"10.1002/9781118926321.part4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"“The idea that markets can price risk is a difficult one because risk means different things to different people. And risk basically implies prediction. Prediction of the possible future states of the world. I think it’s pretty clear if you go look at the literature on decision analysis and forecasting, prediction is a difficult thing to do,” says Pich, one of the authors of the book 'Managing the Unknown: A New Approach to Managing High Uncertainty and Risk in Projects'.","PeriodicalId":35983,"journal":{"name":"Prescrire International","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2018-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"78","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Prescrire International","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118926321.part4","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"Medicine","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 78
Abstract
“The idea that markets can price risk is a difficult one because risk means different things to different people. And risk basically implies prediction. Prediction of the possible future states of the world. I think it’s pretty clear if you go look at the literature on decision analysis and forecasting, prediction is a difficult thing to do,” says Pich, one of the authors of the book 'Managing the Unknown: A New Approach to Managing High Uncertainty and Risk in Projects'.
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