Combinatorial Bayesian Dynamic Linear Models of Bridge Monitored Data and Reliability Prediction

Q4 Engineering

工程设计学报 Pub Date : 2016-02-15 DOI:10.1155/2016/3648126

Xueping Fan, Yuefei Liu

引用次数: 4

Abstract

Considering the uncertainties and randomness of the mass structural health monitored data, the objectives of this paper are to present (a) a procedure for effective incorporation of the monitored data for the reliability prediction of structural components or structures, (b) one transforming method of Bayesian dynamic linear models (BDLMs) based on 1-order polynomial function, (c) model monitoring mechanism used to look for possible abnormal data based on BDLMs, (d) combinatorial Bayesian dynamic linear models based on the multiple BDLMs and their corresponding weights of prediction precision, and (e) an effective way of taking advantage of combinatorial Bayesian dynamic linear models to incorporate the historical data and real-time data in structural time-variant reliability prediction. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the application and feasibility of the proposed procedures and concepts.

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桥梁监测数据的组合贝叶斯动态线性模型及可靠性预测

考虑到大量结构健康监测数据的不确定性和随机性，本文的目标是提出(a)有效整合监测数据进行结构构件或结构可靠性预测的程序，(b)一种基于1阶多项式函数的贝叶斯动态线性模型(BDLMs)的转换方法，(c)基于BDLMs寻找可能异常数据的模型监测机制。(d)基于多个bdlm的组合贝叶斯动态线性模型及其对应的预测精度权重;(e)利用组合贝叶斯动态线性模型将历史数据和实时数据结合到结构时变可靠性预测中的有效方法。最后，给出了一个数值算例来说明所提出的方法和概念的应用和可行性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

工程设计学报 Engineering-Engineering (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

0.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

2447

审稿时长

14 weeks

期刊介绍： Chinese Journal of Engineering Design is a reputable journal published by Zhejiang University Press Co., Ltd. It was founded in December, 1994 as the first internationally cooperative journal in the area of engineering design research. Administrated by the Ministry of Education of China, it is sponsored by both Zhejiang University and Chinese Society of Mechanical Engineering. Zhejiang University Press Co., Ltd. is fully responsible for its bimonthly domestic and oversea publication. Its page is in A4 size. This journal is devoted to reporting most up-to-date achievements of engineering design researches and therefore, to promote the communications of academic researches and their applications to industry. Achievments of great creativity and practicablity are extraordinarily desirable. Aiming at supplying designers, developers and researchers of diversified technical artifacts with valuable references, its content covers all aspects of design theory and methodology, as well as its enabling environment, for instance, creative design, concurrent design, conceptual design, intelligent design, web-based design, reverse engineering design, industrial design, design optimization, tribology, design by biological analogy, virtual reality in design, structural analysis and design, design knowledge representation, design knowledge management, design decision-making systems, etc.