The economic effects of climate change on the fig crop productivity in Matrouh Governorate

Abstract

Climate change has a significant impact on the agriculture sector, and there are several key effects that can occur as a result of climate change on agriculture, including changes in temperature, rainfall patterns, increasing droughts, and floods. This research aims to determine the extent of the fig crop's productivity response to climate change in both short and long periods. This is achieved by analyzing the impact of climate factors such as temperature, rainfall amounts, and distribution over the past years. The main findings of the study indicate that all productivity indicators for the fig crop and climate during the average period of 1999-2022 have shown an increasing trend with varying annual growth rates. By Sherin Fathy Mansour FJARD VOL. 37, NO. 3. PP. 596-610 (2023) 608 examining the time series of the study model variables, it was confirmed that they are stationary after taking the first difference. It was then verified that they are all integrated with a common integration, which necessitates surpassing these variables by representing them in an error correction model. This suggests that the productivity of the fig crop in Matrouh is trending towards its equilibrium value in each time period, with a convergence rate equal to 1.71% of the remaining variation in the period )1-t(. In other words, the productivity of the fig crop diverges during the short period from the equilibrium value in the period )1-t(, and 1.7% of this deviation is corrected. KEYWORD: Climate change, the fig, the Ricardian model, the error correction model. Sherin Fathy Mansour FJARD VOL. 37, NO. 3. PP. 596-610 (2023)