Improved Climate Change Adaptation in Port of Brisbane Using a Digital Twin Cloud-Based Modelling Approach

Helena Karatvuo, M. Linde, A. Dolatshah, S. Mortensen
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Abstract

Due to their low-lying coastal location, ports are vulnerable to climate change induced increases to flooding, waves, extreme winds, and the associated costly damages to port infrastructure and operational disruptions. For these reasons, there is an increasing need for ports to undertake regular risk assessments of the vulnerability of their infrastructure and operations due to the impacts of climate change. A digital twin, cloud-based climate change modelling solution has been developed to enable in-house risk assessments of climate change vulnerability to be undertaken for any port. Once set-up, the system supports the continued sustainable operation of ports and enhancing stakeholder confidence in corporate sustainability strategies by allowing in-house re-evaluation of the ports climate risk as new predictions are released. The basis of the digital twin model of the port are numerical wave and hydrodynamic models, configured with the actual port geography and bathymetry enabling highly detailed simulations of the ports physical environment. The numerical model simulations are supplemented with observations of wind, rainfall, and sea level to identify trends and extreme event probabilities under the historic climate conditions. Scenarios describing the predicted impacts of climate change can be superimposed on the historical climate via a web-based interface where the user (port) selects a planning horizon (e.g., 2050), storm event frequency (e.g., 100-year storm), and climate change predictions (e.g. RCP8.5). The resulting climate change simulations shows great potential to enable port-specific predictions of future impacts of extreme occurrences of wind, waves, water levels, and currents. The ports asset portfolio is incorporated in the risk assessment through dynamic GIS layouts and damage curves identifying the damage cause and cost for each vulnerable port asset. As new climate science becomes available, this cloud-based digital twin model enables ports to rapidly complete updated risk assessments and respond to stakeholder queries and concerns. The capability of the tool was validated by comparing the model results against a large conventional study of the region, and a historical flood event of 2011. Both validation exercises displayed a reasonable agreement increasing confidence in the model’s capacity as a predictive tool. Additionally, six climate change scenarios were modelled for one of Australia’s fastest growing container ports, Port of Brisbane and the results were successfully incorporated in the ports overall sustainability strategy.
使用基于云的数字孪生建模方法改善布里斯班港的气候变化适应
由于位于沿海低洼地区,港口容易受到气候变化导致的洪水、海浪、极端风增加以及相关的港口基础设施损失和运营中断的影响。由于这些原因,港口越来越需要对其基础设施和运营的脆弱性进行定期风险评估,以应对气候变化的影响。已经开发了一种基于云的数字孪生气候变化建模解决方案,可以对任何港口进行气候变化脆弱性的内部风险评估。一旦建立,该系统将支持港口的持续可持续运营,并通过允许内部重新评估港口气候风险来增强利益相关者对公司可持续发展战略的信心。港口数字孪生模型的基础是数值波浪和水动力模型,配置了实际的港口地理和水深测量,可以非常详细地模拟港口的物理环境。数值模式模拟辅以风、降雨和海平面观测,以确定历史气候条件下的趋势和极端事件概率。描述预测的气候变化影响的情景可以通过基于web的界面叠加到历史气候上,用户(端口)可以选择规划地平线(例如2050年)、风暴事件频率(例如百年一遇的风暴)和气候变化预测(例如RCP8.5)。由此产生的气候变化模拟显示出巨大的潜力,可以对特定港口的风、浪、水位和洋流的极端事件的未来影响进行预测。通过动态GIS布局和损伤曲线,将港口资产组合纳入风险评估,确定每个港口易损资产的损伤原因和成本。随着新的气候科学的出现,这种基于云的数字孪生模型使港口能够快速完成更新的风险评估,并响应利益相关者的询问和关注。通过将模型结果与该地区的大型常规研究结果以及2011年的历史洪水事件进行比较,验证了该工具的能力。两个验证练习都显示出合理的一致性,增加了对模型作为预测工具的能力的信心。此外,还为澳大利亚发展最快的集装箱港口之一布里斯班港建立了六种气候变化情景模型,并将其结果成功地纳入了该港口的整体可持续发展战略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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