Tax composition and economic growth in the age of demographic change

IF 2.2 4区管理学 Q2 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Policy Studies Pub Date : 2022-07-27 DOI:10.1080/01442872.2022.2096212

Weijie Luo

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study analyses the impact of the relative use of distortionary and non-distortionary taxes on economic growth using a panel of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and a sample period of 1980–2015. In particular, we examine whether the impact of non-distortionary taxes on economic growth increases with ageing, which has increased in western countries over the past 30 years. We do so by extending the dataset to include the dramatic change in the demographic structure seen in OECD countries since 1990. Using this lengthened data range allows us to find a negative effect of distortionary taxation as expected. However, our results also show that an increase in non-distortionary taxation is negatively associated with growth. This study thus argues that recent distortions from non-distortionary taxation can be accounted for by the rapid ageing of the population. Ideal tax systems are often formulated by economists, but politicians cannot always adopt such an ideal tax design because of the risk of losing popularity with the electorate. Our analysis could be applied to design tax systems that can be implemented in the real world.

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人口变化时代的税收构成与经济增长

本研究利用经济合作与发展组织(OECD)国家小组和1980-2015年的样本期，分析了扭曲性和非扭曲性税收的相对使用对经济增长的影响。特别是，我们研究了非扭曲性税收对经济增长的影响是否随着老龄化而增加，这在过去30年里在西方国家有所增加。为了做到这一点，我们扩展了数据集，纳入了经合组织国家自1990年以来人口结构的巨大变化。利用这一延长的数据范围，我们可以像预期的那样发现扭曲性税收的负面影响。然而，我们的研究结果也表明，非扭曲性税收的增加与经济增长呈负相关。因此，这项研究认为，最近非扭曲性税收造成的扭曲可以用人口的迅速老龄化来解释。理想的税收制度通常是由经济学家制定的，但政治家不能总是采用这种理想的税收设计，因为有可能失去选民的支持。我们的分析可以应用于设计可以在现实世界中实施的税收制度。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Policy Studies PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION-

CiteScore

5.40

自引率

4.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： These changes at the structural level of the global system have impacted upon the work of public organizations either directly or indirectly and have broadened the field of action in policy studies. It has five main areas of intellectual interest: 1.To broaden the lens of policy analysis through the publication of research which locates policy-making within a theoretical, historical or comparative perspective. 2.To widen the field of enquiry in policy analysis through the publication of research that examines policy issues in a British, comparative, international or global context. 3.To promote constructive debate on theoretical, methodological and empirical issues in policy analysis.