Competitive oil prices and scarcity rents when the extraction cost function is convex

Abstract

The relationship between the time path of equilibrium prices and scarcity rents in the case of exhaustible resources depends on the nature of the extraction cost function. This paper examines the characteristics of the resource price path and scarcity rents when the extraction cost function is increasing and convex - a shape that seems to predominate in empirical work, especially in the case of oil. Scarcity rents eventually decline and the competitive price path inflects at the point where the scarcity rents stop rising. The theory is illustrated by using realistic cost and demand estimates from the oil industry.