MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON NIGERIAN STOCK EXCHANGE

Abstract

This study examines macroeconomic indicators and their impacts on stock market returns in Nigeria from 1986 to 2018. The study employs secondary data culled from the central bank of Nigeria's statistical bulletin. The paper utilized data techniques of the unit root test, Ordinary least square, the Johansen co-integration, the Pairwise Granger causality test, and the error correction model. The study shown a long-run relationship among market capitalization and macroeconomic indicators of inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, and money supply estimates for approximately 68% variations in market capitalization in the long run. The parsimonious error correction model which is rightly and significantly signed with a co-efficient of -0.454773 is an indication that over 45% variation in market capitalization can be corrected over a year using our selected independent variables. The Granger causality test shows absence of bidirectional relationship among any of our independent variables and market capitalization. The study recommends that appropriate interest rate policies should be initiated that will guide the operation in the capital markets as well as other macroeconomic indicators in view of demonstrated negative relationship between stock prices and interest rate. Also, authorities should implement policies which will reduce inflation Rate to a minimal level and to boast up standard of living in the countries.