Uncertainty Analysis for Evaluating CH4 Emission from Solid Waste Landfill of Hefei City Based on Monte Carlo Method

Journal of Residuals Science & Technology Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI:10.12783/issn.1544-8053/14/1/7

Guang-sheng Chen, Xinhai Li Yukun Xu Lifeng Jiao, Rong Hu

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Abstract

It is an important content to analyze the uncertainty of emission from greenhouse gases in compiling the emission inventory. Reliable uncertainty estimates can also be used to increase the quality of emission inventories. This paper took the emission of CH4 from the solid waste landfill in Hefei City in 2014 as an example, and employed the mass balance method to compute its emission. Monte Carlo method was used to carry out the sensitivity analysis and compute uncertainty. Through computing, 95% confidence interval of CH4 emission from landfill in Hefei City was (1.89~3.40) × 104 t. The mean value was 2.61 × 104 t with uncertainty range of –27.59%~30.27%. Among all the parameters, the decomposable proportion of DOC (DOCf ) showed the greatest impact on the emission of CH4 from the landfill and its contribution to emission result was 26.33%. Followed by the degradable organic carbon (DOC) was 26.29%, the amount of solid waste (MSW) was 13.63%, methane correction factor (MCF) was 6.93% and the proportion of methane in landfill gas (F) was 6.58%. The results showed that compared with traditional error propagation method, it improved the accuracy and quality of assessment and provided a scientific basis to improve the quality of inventory as well.

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基于蒙特卡罗法评价合肥市垃圾填埋场CH4排放的不确定性分析

温室气体排放不确定性分析是编制温室气体排放清单的重要内容。可靠的不确定性估计也可用于提高排放清单的质量。本文以合肥市2014年固体垃圾填埋场CH4排放量为例，采用质量平衡法计算其排放量。采用蒙特卡罗方法进行灵敏度分析，计算不确定度。计算得出合肥市垃圾填埋场CH4排放量的95%置信区间为(1.89~3.40)× 104 t，平均值为2.61 × 104 t，不确定度范围为-27.59% ~30.27%。在所有参数中，DOC的可分解比例(DOCf)对填埋场CH4排放的影响最大，对排放结果的贡献率为26.33%。其次是可降解有机碳(DOC)为26.29%，固体废物(MSW)为13.63%，甲烷校正系数(MCF)为6.93%，填埋气中甲烷的比例(F)为6.58%。结果表明，与传统的误差传播法相比，该方法提高了评估的准确性和质量，为提高库存质量提供了科学依据。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Residuals Science & Technology 环境科学-工程：环境

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>36 weeks

期刊介绍： The international Journal of Residuals Science & Technology (JRST) is a blind-refereed quarterly devoted to conscientious analysis and commentary regarding significant environmental sciences-oriented research and technical management of residuals in the environment. The journal provides a forum for scientific investigations addressing contamination within environmental media of air, water, soil, and biota and also offers studies exploring source, fate, transport, and ecological effects of environmental contamination.