Futures and Foresight in Kazakhstan: From Oil and Pastures to Artificial Intelligence and Connected Markets

Abstract

As the local start-up landscape strengthens and private sector activities expand, Kazakhstan could benefit greatly from expanding the application of futures and foresight thinking. The methodology could result in enhanced business strategies and implementation plans as well as in an increased planning capacity from the local authorities to create an ecosystem that fosters economic growth overall. We held two workshops aimed to (i) clarify emerging issues and trends—the changing future, (ii) empower leaders and managers to create the futures they desire, and (iii) identify factors impeding the preferred future. The first workshop explored futures scenarios in five thematic areas and concluded with a clear strategy in each. Instead of trying to solve problems of the present, participants explored possibilities of the future, one where Kazakhstan did not fall behind but wisely used the future to become more competitive. The second workshop applied futures strategic thinking to agriculture development. Participants’ optimistic scenario was one where Kazakhstan becomes a global leader in agriculture by using technology innovation, recombining knowledge and science, and disseminating them widely among farmers. Agriculture would be less regulated, have no top–down policies, be environmentally sustainable, and meet rural people’s needs. It was a scenario where high-value agriculture changes production and the Kazakhstan quality “brand” was strengthened through rural–urban links. The participants animatedly engaged in a futures-oriented interactive dialogue to deepen their understanding of emerging issues, cultural and structural pull-backs, and possible policy solutions. They also demonstrated that the futures and foresight methodology helps improving communication, break silos with a common vision, and define collective actions. Visiting Kazakhstan, it feels the futures have already arrived but are pulled back and hidden in practices and memories of the past.