Inflation-Growth Nexus in Botswana: Can Lower Inflation Really Spur Growth in the Country?

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2018-06-20 DOI:10.1515/gej-2018-0045

Gosego Mothuti, A. Phiri

引用次数: 5

Abstract

Abstract Does inflation affect economic growth in Botswana over the short-run and long-run? In applying bounds procedure for modelling ARDL cointegation effects applied to empirical data collected between 1975 and 2016 we find that this hypothesis does not hold true for Botswana as inflation is found to be insignificantly related with economic growth over both the short and long-run. Our growth equation estimates point to exports (positive), government size (negative) and an Pula/Dollar exchange rate (negative) as being significantly correlated with steady-state GDP growth. Further empirical exercises show that an appreciated Pula/dollar exchange rate increases inflation whilst bearing no effect on economic growth. Conversely, a depreciated Pula/Dollar exchange simultaneously decreases inflation and economic growth for the Botswana economy. Policymakers should be this aware that attainment of lower inflation rates which occurs through a depreciated Pula/Dollar currency will only retard economic growth.

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博茨瓦纳的通胀-增长关系:低通胀真的能刺激该国的增长吗?

通货膨胀是否会影响博茨瓦纳的短期和长期经济增长?在应用边界程序对1975年至2016年收集的经验数据进行ARDL协整效应建模时，我们发现这一假设对博茨瓦纳不成立，因为通货膨胀与短期和长期的经济增长都不显著相关。我们的增长方程估计表明，出口(正)、政府规模(负)和普拉拉/美元汇率(负)与稳态GDP增长显著相关。进一步的实证研究表明，升值的普拉拉/美元汇率会增加通货膨胀，而对经济增长没有影响。相反，贬值的普拉兑美元汇率同时降低了博茨瓦纳经济的通货膨胀和经济增长。政策制定者应该意识到，通过贬值的普拉/美元货币来实现较低的通货膨胀率只会阻碍经济增长。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.