Nicaragua: power crisis and elections in 2021

Abstract

The article is devoted to the current internal political situation in Nicaragua. The author analyzes the reasons for the acute socio-political crisis that arose in April 2018, presenting a detailed analysis of a historical background of these events. The author notes that a regime of personal power of President Ortega has been established in the country, relying on bureaucracy and power structures, since it is them playing a key role in preserving Ortega as the country’s President. The paper assesses the alignment of political forces and the general political situation in the opposition camp. The author analyzes the reasons for a number of existing contradictions that plague the opposition bloc of Nicaragua. An analysis of political potential and electoral possibilities of the opposition forces is given. The author predicts a possible scenario for the development of events within the framework of internal political situation in connection with the upcoming elections to be held in November 2021. The author comes to conclusion that the regime of Ortega is weakening and losing its positions, but still retains a margin of safety, which allows him to remain in power. As one of the scenarios for the development of events, the author predicts the possibility of a ‘compromise figure’ coming to power, which, however, does not imply a change in the real balance of power and dominant political figures in state politics.