Covid-19 Lockdown Cost/Benefits: A Critical Assessment of the Literature

IF 1.9 Q3 BUSINESS
D. Allen
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引用次数: 74

Abstract

Abstract An examination of over 100 Covid-19 studies reveals that many relied on false assumptions that over-estimated the benefits and under-estimated the costs of lockdown. The most recent research has shown that lockdowns have had, at best, a marginal effect on the number of Covid-19 deaths. Generally speaking, the ineffectiveness stemmed from individual changes in behavior: either non-compliance or behavior that mimicked lockdowns. The limited effectiveness of lockdowns explains why, after more than one year, the unconditional cumulative Covid-19 deaths per million is not negatively correlated with the stringency of lockdown across countries. Using a method proposed by Professor Bryan Caplan along with estimates of lockdown benefits based on the econometric evidence, I calculate a number of cost/benefit ratios of lockdowns in terms of life-years saved. Using a mid-point estimate for costs and benefits, the reasonable estimate for Canada is a cost/benefit ratio of 141. It is possible that lockdown will go down as one of the greatest peacetime policy failures in modern history.
Covid-19封锁成本/收益:对文献的批判性评估
对100多项Covid-19研究的调查显示,许多研究依赖于错误的假设,高估了封锁的好处,低估了封锁的成本。最近的研究表明,封锁充其量对Covid-19死亡人数产生了边际影响。一般来说,这种无效源于个人行为的变化:要么不遵守规定,要么模仿封锁的行为。封锁的有限效果解释了为什么在一年多后,每百万人的无条件累积Covid-19死亡人数与各国封锁的严格程度没有负相关。我使用布莱恩·卡普兰教授提出的一种方法,以及基于计量经济学证据对封锁效益的估计,计算了封锁所节省的生命年数的成本/效益比。使用成本和收益的中点估计,加拿大的合理估计是成本/收益比为141。封锁可能会被视为现代历史上和平时期最大的政策失败之一。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.60
自引率
8.30%
发文量
9
期刊介绍: International Journal of the Economics of Business presents original, peer reviewed research in economics that is clearly applicable to business or related public policy problems or issues. The term "business" is used in its widest sense to encompass both public and private sector—governmental, private non-profit and cooperative organizations, as well as profit-seeking enterprises. International Journal of the Economics of Business carries papers relating to three main spheres: The organization—to analyse and aid decision making and the internal organization of the business; The industry—to analyse how businesses interact and evolve within and across industries.
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