Assessing and prospecting decoupling effect of carbon emissions from economic growth: Empirical studies from Chinese provinces

IF 4 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Energy & Environment Pub Date : 2022-05-23 DOI:10.1177/0958305X221100534

Xinyue Zhang, Xiaopeng Guo, Xingping Zhang

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

China has proposed ambitious goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, and will pay more attention to the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions. It's significant to assess the current environmental decoupling and prospect the future conditions in China. This article studies the decoupling status and influencing factors in Chinese provinces from 1996 to 2018 through Tapio decoupling index and decomposition model. The results show that most provinces are currently in a weak decoupling state. The growth of per capita GDP and population will affect the process of strong decoupling, while the optimization of energy intensity, energy structure and industrial structure will promote the realization of strong decoupling. Moreover, this paper prospects the decoupling scenarios of Chinese provinces from 2019 to 2035 and finds that all provinces will achieve strong decoupling before 2040, 2035 and 2030 under different carbon emissions scenarios respectively. To achieve the strong decoupling of economic output and carbon emissions as soon as possible, the government must improve energy efficiency, use renewable energy in large quantities, and promote the industrial transformation and upgrading.

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碳排放与经济增长的脱钩效应评估与展望——来自中国各省的实证研究

中国提出了雄心勃勃的碳峰值和碳中和目标，并将更加关注经济发展与碳排放的关系。这对评估中国当前的环境脱钩和展望未来具有重要意义。本文通过Tapio脱钩指数和分解模型，研究了1996 - 2018年中国各省的脱钩状况及其影响因素。结果表明，目前大部分省份处于弱脱钩状态。人均GDP和人口的增长将影响强脱钩的过程，而能源强度、能源结构和产业结构的优化将促进强脱钩的实现。此外，本文对2019 - 2035年中国各省的脱钩情景进行了展望，发现在不同碳排放情景下，各省分别在2040年、2035年和2030年之前实现了强脱钩。为了尽快实现经济产出与碳排放的强脱钩，政府必须提高能源效率，大量使用可再生能源，促进产业转型升级。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Energy & Environment ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

7.60

自引率

7.10%

发文量

157

期刊介绍： Energy & Environment is an interdisciplinary journal inviting energy policy analysts, natural scientists and engineers, as well as lawyers and economists to contribute to mutual understanding and learning, believing that better communication between experts will enhance the quality of policy, advance social well-being and help to reduce conflict. The journal encourages dialogue between the social sciences as energy demand and supply are observed and analysed with reference to politics of policy-making and implementation. The rapidly evolving social and environmental impacts of energy supply, transport, production and use at all levels require contribution from many disciplines if policy is to be effective. In particular E & E invite contributions from the study of policy delivery, ultimately more important than policy formation. The geopolitics of energy are also important, as are the impacts of environmental regulations and advancing technologies on national and local politics, and even global energy politics. Energy & Environment is a forum for constructive, professional information sharing, as well as debate across disciplines and professions, including the financial sector. Mathematical articles are outside the scope of Energy & Environment. The broader policy implications of submitted research should be addressed and environmental implications, not just emission quantities, be discussed with reference to scientific assumptions. This applies especially to technical papers based on arguments suggested by other disciplines, funding bodies or directly by policy-makers.