The Implication of Fiscal Variables in the Monetary Reaction Function of Pakistan

Abstract

This paper investigates the influence of fiscal variables on the monetary reaction function innPakistan. The main concern of a macroeconomic policy is to achieve sustainable growth and to keep a low level of inflation in the economy. For empirical analysis, the Autoregressive Distributive Lag model (ARDL) is applied using quarterly data for the period 2004Q1 to 2020Q4. The empirical evidence reveals that the monetary policy instrument in the monetary reaction function is explained significantly by the fiscal policy variables both in the short and long-run. Monetary policy independently cannot control inflation unless it has the support of the fiscal policy. Therefore, for an optimal policy mix, a wise monetary policy must be followed by a comprehensive fiscal policy in the case of Pakistan.