Optimization Model for Determining Global Solar Radiation in the Northeastern States of Nigeria Using Both Meteorological and Satellite Imagery Data

Abstract

This study presents an optimization model for determining global solar radiation in the northeastern region of Nigeria using a combination of meteorological data and satellite imagery. Ten recent models were chosen from the literature review and optimized to select the one that best fits the study region. Two models were developed to provide accurate solar radiation predictions, which can be used to improve the planning and implementation of a solar energy project in the region. The model integrates the Angstrom-Prescott model with various climate parameters such as Temperature (∆T), relative humidity (RH), location latitude (Φ), solar declination angle (δ), and the number of days in a year (n) with satellite image data to determine the global solar radiation. The finding of optimization models shows that the model10 performed very well with minimum error as Mean Base Error (0.028), Mean Percentage Error (-0.001), Root Mean Square Error (0.098), and coefficient of determination R2 (0.994), which suggested as the optimized model for determining of global solar radiation in northeastern Nigeria. The two models were developed, that is, proposed Model1 and proposed Model2. Proposed Model1 slightly overestimated the global solar radiation with Mean Base Error (-0.863), Mean Percentage Error (-0.039), Root Mean Square Error (2.990), and coefficient of determination R2 (0.745), while proposed Model2 performed better with Mean Base Error (-0.005), Mean Percentage Error (0.0003), Root Mean Square Error (0.02) with the coefficient of determination R2 (0.985). The proposed models were validated using the suggested optimized model10 and satellite data model, which show that the proposed model can accurately determine global solar radiation in the northeastern region of Nigeria. This study's findings will benefit the region's solar energy project developers, researchers, and policymakers.