Turkish Exports Before and After the 2001 Financial Crisis: A Panel Gravity Model

IF 1.1 Q4 BUSINESS
Semih Karacan, Özgen Korkmaz
{"title":"Turkish Exports Before and After the 2001 Financial Crisis: A Panel Gravity Model","authors":"Semih Karacan, Özgen Korkmaz","doi":"10.1177/00157325211047001","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Turkey was subjected to a number of financial shocks after the liberalisation movements in the 1980s. The most devastating of them was the consecutive political and financial crises in late 2000 and early 2001. The absence of political stability and depreciated Turkish Lira devastated the markets. The Turkish government immediately acted against the collapsed economic system and introduced a radical Economic Stability Programme under the supervision of Kemal Dervis¸. The programme has restructured the banking and financial system and improved economic discipline. In this study, we aim to investigate the impacts of the 2001 crisis and the structural changes on Turkish exports. To this end, we estimate a one-way gravity model, using panel data belonging to Turkish exports to 135 World Trade Organization (WTO) member countries, over the period between 1981 and 2015. The augmented model controls for the inter/intra-industry exports, competitiveness, trade agreements, trade unions and additional demographics. We utilised Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) estimator to account for unobservable time-invariant effects, zero trade, possible heteroscedasticity, and cross-correlation. The results reveals that Turkey has become a free market economy after the liberalisation movements in the early 1980s, and its exports are determined by the same indicators that affect other similar economies; on the other hand, the 2001 crisis has an immediate positive effect on exports through weak Turkish Lira, but this effect turns to negative in the following year. In addition, we find that structural changes in the economic system has a significant effect on exports and help to mitigate the trade-distorting effects of the global financial crisis in 2008. JEL Codes: C33, F13, F14","PeriodicalId":29933,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Trade Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1000,"publicationDate":"2021-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Foreign Trade Review","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00157325211047001","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"BUSINESS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1

Abstract

Turkey was subjected to a number of financial shocks after the liberalisation movements in the 1980s. The most devastating of them was the consecutive political and financial crises in late 2000 and early 2001. The absence of political stability and depreciated Turkish Lira devastated the markets. The Turkish government immediately acted against the collapsed economic system and introduced a radical Economic Stability Programme under the supervision of Kemal Dervis¸. The programme has restructured the banking and financial system and improved economic discipline. In this study, we aim to investigate the impacts of the 2001 crisis and the structural changes on Turkish exports. To this end, we estimate a one-way gravity model, using panel data belonging to Turkish exports to 135 World Trade Organization (WTO) member countries, over the period between 1981 and 2015. The augmented model controls for the inter/intra-industry exports, competitiveness, trade agreements, trade unions and additional demographics. We utilised Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) estimator to account for unobservable time-invariant effects, zero trade, possible heteroscedasticity, and cross-correlation. The results reveals that Turkey has become a free market economy after the liberalisation movements in the early 1980s, and its exports are determined by the same indicators that affect other similar economies; on the other hand, the 2001 crisis has an immediate positive effect on exports through weak Turkish Lira, but this effect turns to negative in the following year. In addition, we find that structural changes in the economic system has a significant effect on exports and help to mitigate the trade-distorting effects of the global financial crisis in 2008. JEL Codes: C33, F13, F14
2001年金融危机前后土耳其出口:一个面板重力模型
在20世纪80年代的自由化运动之后,土耳其遭受了多次金融冲击。其中最具破坏性的是2000年末和2001年初接连发生的政治和金融危机。政治不稳定和土耳其里拉贬值重创了市场。土耳其政府立即对崩溃的经济体系采取行动,并在凯末尔·德尔维斯的监督下推出了一项激进的经济稳定计划。该方案重组了银行和金融体系,改善了经济纪律。在本研究中,我们旨在调查2001年危机和结构性变化对土耳其出口的影响。为此,我们使用1981年至2015年期间属于土耳其向135个世界贸易组织(WTO)成员国出口的面板数据估计了单向重力模型。增强模型控制了行业间/行业内出口、竞争力、贸易协定、工会和其他人口统计数据。我们使用泊松伪最大似然(PPML)估计器来解释不可观测的时不变效应、零交易、可能的异方差和相互关系。结果表明,在20世纪80年代初的自由化运动之后,土耳其已经成为一个自由市场经济,其出口是由影响其他类似经济体的相同指标决定的;另一方面,2001年的危机通过疲软的土耳其里拉对出口产生了直接的积极影响,但这种影响在第二年变成了负面影响。此外,我们发现经济体系的结构性变化对出口有显著影响,并有助于缓解2008年全球金融危机造成的贸易扭曲效应。JEL代码:C33, F13, F14
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
23.10%
发文量
37
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信