A computer simulation of urban growth

Abstract

This paper presents a computer model for simulating urban growth, given a set of economic and transportation parameters. The model is designed for both forecasting and pedagogic purposes. It allows the planner or the student to produce a spatial forecast of land uses in a given geographic region, on the basis of exogenously determined growth parameters, employment patterns and transportation alternatives. The program calculates future levels of activity and land areas required for each activity. It also allocates land uses in space. These land-use allocations are then printed out for each future year, and are determined on the basis of minimizing the time spent in transportation between each new activity and all existing activities in the region.