Integrating Analytic Hierarchy Process in Assessing the Criticality of Vulnerable Oil and Gas Infrastructure to Climate Change Impacts in the Niger Delta

Abstract

The Niger Delta is under severe threat from the impacts of climate change in the form of flood, rising temperature, surging Atlantic tides, persistent heavy rainfall, and windstorms. The severity of the impacts on current and planned oil/gas infrastructures calls for urgent adaptation strategies. To adapt effectively, prioritisation of oil and gas infrastructures according to their criticality is crucial. This paper applied a systematic review of highly referenced journal articles published between 2008 and 2019 to scope and synthesise specific criticality assessment criteria for evaluation. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was implemented in criteria-based pairwise comparison and prioritisation of selected infrastructures. Practitioners with at least ten years of experience in the oil/gas industry in the Niger Delta were stratified accordingly for data collection through a perception-based pairwise comparison technique. The result was analysed using Mi-AHP software and shows the global priorities (eigenvector, EV) for each asset. Terminals, flow stations and roads/bridges obtained the highest EV = 0.27, 0.19, and 0.15 respectively; indicating their high criticality level in the oil and gas assets value chain. The result also shows that transformers/high voltage cable are the fourth most critical systems obtaining EV = 0.14 while Pipelines, loading bays and wellheads were ranked fifth, sixth, and seventh with EV = 0.11, 0.09 and 0.05. The paper portrays AHP as an effective tool in decomposing complex decision-making processes for evaluation of critical infrastructures for climate adaptation planning in the oil and gas industry.