Estimation and demographic analysis of COVID-19 infections with respect to weather factors in Europe

Abstract

ABSTRACT The main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between the COVID-19 and the weather factors of the most populated and industrialised countries in Europe and propose the best mathematical model to forecast the daily number of COVID-19 cases. To find the relationship between the COVID-19 and the weather factors of absolute humidity and temperature in Spain, France, Italy, Germany, and the United Kingdom, we conducted a Poisson analysis. We also used the General Linear Neural Network (GRNN) model to forecast the trend and number of daily COVID-19 cases in these European countries. The results reveal a statistically significant negative relationship between the number of COVID-19 infections and weather factors of temperature & absolute humidity. Furthermore, the results show a stronger negative relationship between COVID-19 and absolute humidity than temperature. In our proposed GRNN method, we find better compatibility for the COVID-19 cases in Italy relative to the other European countries in this study.