Estimated Profits of Rengginang Lorjuk Madura by Used Comparison of Holt-Winter and Moving Average

Erwin Prasetyowati, Imron Rosyadi Nr, Matsaini Matsaini
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Rengginang Lorjuk is a typical Madura food that is ordered more by SMEs and is found in Sumenep Regency and several other areas in Madura. This product is made for supplies and orders, where demand will surge at certain times. Therefore, SMEs of Rengginang Lorjuk is required to have good planning in determining the selling price in accordance with the revenue target obtained. Considering that the main raw materials used are sticky rice and ensis leei (lorjuk) are raw materials that have fluctuating prices, this studio compares forecasting methods namely Holt Winter (HW) and Moving Average (MA), supported by MSE and MAPE, in order to obtain accurate forecasting results. These forecasting results show that HW has better accuracy than the MA, which is then used to calculate the cost of production with an Activity-Based Costing system, which requires charging costs for all activities carried out in production, namely the cost of raw materials, direct labor costs, and overhead factory fee. Using MAPE values, this study yields 4 estimates of production costs in accordance with changes in raw material costs.
利用冬冬和移动平均线的比较估计仁津港洛柱马都拉的利润
Rengginang Lorjuk是一种典型的马都拉食物,在马都拉的Sumenep Regency和其他几个地区,中小企业更喜欢点这种食物。这种产品是为供应和订单而制造的,在某些时候需求会激增。因此,在确定销售价格时,需要仁津罗竹中小企业根据所获得的收入目标进行良好的规划。考虑到使用的主要原材料是糯米,而腊角是价格波动的原材料,本工作室比较了霍尔特冬季(HW)和移动平均(MA)的预测方法,并以MSE和MAPE为支撑,以获得准确的预测结果。这些预测结果表明,HW比MA具有更好的准确性,然后使用作业成本法计算生产成本,作业成本法要求对生产中进行的所有活动收取成本,即原材料成本,直接人工成本和工厂间接费用。使用MAPE值,本研究根据原材料成本的变化得出4种生产成本估计。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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