AGGRAVATING EFFECTS OF FOOD EXPORT RESTRICTIONS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY: AN ANALYSIS OF RICE ECONOMY BASED ON ALTERNATIVE INDICATORS

Abstract

The impact of climate change (CC) on food security has been widely discussed in the literature. However, the role of food export restrictions induced by CC is poorly understood. In this study, we take rice as an example and apply a global economic model to investigate the food security implications of CC and food export restrictions based on both self-sufficiency rate (SSR) and household rice consumption indicators. We find that for capturing the impacts of CC and export restrictions on food security, the household rice consumption indicator is much more suitable than the SSR indicator. The impacts of the export restrictions on food security vastly exceed CC effects in over half of the regions. Regarding household rice consumption indicators, the sign of the impact of rice export restriction for each country depends on its position in the global rice market and whether it enforces the restriction policy. The magnitude of impacts depends on the changes in consumer prices of rice and the affluence level of each region. Facing CC, household rice consumption in regions without export restrictions will be negatively affected. Interestingly, not all the regions enforcing export restrictions would benefit from the restrictive policy. Only the net rice exporters benefit slightly, while net importers are adversely affected. The export restriction policy would make the harmful effects of CC transmit from South Asia to Africa and the Middle East. For adaptation/mitigation policies, more attention should be paid to the leading exporters imposing export restrictions where the adverse effects are originated and the more impoverished regions with close trade connections with such regions.