Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Critical Oil/Gas Infrastructure: A Decision-Maker’s Perception in the Niger Delta

Abstract

The impacts of climate change arising from flooding, the intrusion of high saline tidewater, rising temperature, wind storms, and rising Atlantic level are exacerbating significant threats to oil and gas critical installations in the Niger Delta. Understanding the hierarchies of vulnerable critical infrastructure could help assets managers in the industry to adopt sustainable adaptation measures against the looming impacts of climate change–induced stress on systems. In this article, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is implemented in prioritising vulnerable critical oil and gas infrastructure in the Niger Delta for effective and sustainable adaptation planning and response. A mix of an exploratory investigation involving interdisciplinary participants' engagement in focus groups were conducted in four multinational oil companies in the Niger Delta to elicit data for analysis. Participants in the study compared seven selected critical installations using an AHP questionnaire. A Mi-AHP spreadsheet analysis of stakeholders' perceptions revealed infrastructure vulnerability in hierarchical form: pipelines, terminals, roads/bridges, flow stations, loading bays, transformers/high voltage cables, and wellheads. The study shows that the vulnerability in the region is influenced by exposure, the presence of climate burdens, and proximity to inundated coastal areas below 4.5 meters above sea level. It also shows that critical systems are vulnerable due to interdependence and level of linkages that exist between directly vulnerable and non-directly vulnerable assets. Results also show that vulnerability in the region is due to critical perception, age and obsolescence, and weak adaptive capacity. This study furnished decision-makers in the oil and gas sector with information on which infrastructure is to be protected in terms of adaptation planning, investment, and implementation with particular attention on climate change.