Opportunistic Repression: Civilian Targeting by the State in Response to COVID-19

IF 4.8 1区社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

International Security Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI:10.1162/isec_a_00419

Donald Grasse, Melissa Pavlik, Hilary Matfess, Travis B. Curtice

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引用次数: 25

Abstract

Abstract Across the globe, states have attempted to contain COVID-19 by restricting movement, closing schools and businesses, and banning large gatherings. Such measures have expanded the degree of sanctioned state intervention into civilians' lives. But existing theories of preventive and responsive repression cannot explain why some countries experienced surges in repression after states in Africa initiated COVID-19-related lockdowns. While responsive repression occurs when states quell protests or riots, “opportunistic repression” arises when states use crises to suppress the political opposition. An examination of the relationship between COVID-19 shutdown policies and state violence against civilians in Africa tests this theory of opportunistic repression. Findings reveal a large and statistically significant relationship between shutdowns and repression, which holds after conditioning for the spread and lethality of the disease within-country and over time. A subnational case study of repression in Uganda provides evidence that the increase in repression appears to be concentrated in opposition areas that showed less support for Yoweri Museveni in the 2016 elections. Opportunistic repression provides a better explanation than theories of preventive or responsive repression for why Uganda experienced a surge in repression in 2020 and in what areas. The results have implications for theories of repression, authoritarian survival, the politics of emergency, and security.

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机会主义镇压:国家为应对COVID-19而以平民为目标

在全球范围内，各国试图通过限制行动、关闭学校和企业、禁止大型集会来控制COVID-19。这些措施扩大了国家对平民生活的干预程度。但是，现有的预防性和反应性镇压理论无法解释为什么在非洲国家启动与covid -19相关的封锁后，一些国家的镇压激增。当国家镇压抗议或骚乱时，就会出现反应性镇压，而当国家利用危机镇压政治反对派时，就会出现"机会主义镇压"。对非洲COVID-19关闭政策与国家对平民暴力之间关系的研究验证了这种机会主义镇压理论。调查结果显示，关闭和抑制之间存在着巨大的、具有统计意义的关系，这种关系在对疾病在国内和随着时间的推移的传播和致命性进行调节后仍然存在。一项关于乌干达镇压的次国家级案例研究提供了证据，表明镇压的增加似乎集中在2016年选举中对约韦里·穆塞韦尼支持较少的反对派地区。机会主义镇压比预防性或响应性镇压理论更好地解释了乌干达为何在2020年经历了镇压激增，以及在哪些领域发生了镇压。研究结果对镇压理论、威权主义生存理论、紧急政治理论和安全理论具有启示意义。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Security Social Sciences-Law

CiteScore

7.40

自引率

10.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： International Security publishes lucid, well-documented essays on the full range of contemporary security issues. Its articles address traditional topics of war and peace, as well as more recent dimensions of security, including environmental, demographic, and humanitarian issues, transnational networks, and emerging technologies. International Security has defined the debate on US national security policy and set the agenda for scholarship on international security affairs for more than forty years. The journal values scholarship that challenges the conventional wisdom, examines policy, engages theory, illuminates history, and discovers new trends. Readers of IS discover new developments in: The causes and prevention of war U.S.-China relations Great power politics Ethnic conflict and intra-state war Terrorism and insurgency Regional security in Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin America U.S. foreign and defense policy International relations theory Diplomatic and military history Cybersecurity and defense technology Political economy, business, and security Nuclear proliferation.