Scenario analysis of stampede accidents in scenic spots

Abstract

In order to improve emergency management and control ability of huge crowds in scenic spotsꎬ a combination of scenario analysis and dynamic Bayesian network was used to study evolution process of stampede accidents. Situation stateꎬ disaster ̄causing bodyꎬ disaster ̄bearing body and driving factors were selected as key elements to explore law and path of accident scenario evolution. Thenꎬ the dynamic Bayesian network was used to construct a scenario network of huge crowd stampede incidentsꎬ and development trend of the scene was deduced by using situation state probability. The results show that scenarios with high risk of accidents are population fallꎬ crowd stalemateꎬ population flow increase and crowd gathering in turn. And the major reasons for them are interventions of corresponding driving factors such as inadequate preparation for preventionꎬ inadequate security management of scenic spotsꎬ imperfect human flow monitoring equipment and crowd diversion facilities.