Influence of advanced footwear technology on sub-2 hour marathon and other top running performances

IF 1.1 Q3 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2021-04-17 DOI:10.1515/jqas-2021-0043

Andreu Arderiu, Raphaël de Fondeville

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Abstract

Abstract In 2019, Eliud Kipchoge ran a sub-two hour marathon wearing Nike’s Alphafly shoes. Despite being the fastest marathon time ever recorded, it wasn’t officially recognized as race conditions were tightly controlled to maximize his success. Besides, Kipchoge’s use of Alphafly shoes was controversial, with some experts claiming that they might have provided an unfair competitive advantage. In this work, we assess the potential influence of advanced footwear technology and the likelihood of a sub-two hour marathon in official races, by studying the evolution of running top performances from 2001 to 2019 for long distances ranging from 10 km to marathon. The analysis is performed using extreme value theory, a field of statistics dealing with analysis of rare events. We find a significant evidence of performance-enhancement effect with a 10% increase of the probability that a new world record for marathon-men discipline is set in 2021. However, results suggest that achieving a sub-two hour marathon in an official race in 2021 is still very unlikely, and exceeds 10% probability only by 2025.

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先进的鞋类技术对2小时以下马拉松及其他顶级跑步成绩的影响

2019年，Eliud Kipchoge穿着耐克的Alphafly跑鞋跑了不到两个小时的马拉松。尽管这是有史以来最快的马拉松成绩，但由于比赛条件受到严格控制，以最大限度地提高他的成绩，这一成绩并未得到官方认可。此外，Kipchoge使用Alphafly鞋引起了争议，一些专家声称它们可能提供了不公平的竞争优势。在这项工作中，我们通过研究2001年至2019年从10公里到马拉松的长距离跑步最高成绩的演变，评估了先进鞋类技术的潜在影响和官方比赛中2小时以下马拉松比赛的可能性。分析是使用极值理论进行的，极值理论是处理罕见事件分析的统计领域。我们发现了一个显著的成绩提升效应的证据，即2021年马拉松男子项目创造新的世界纪录的可能性增加了10%。然而，结果表明，在2021年的正式比赛中实现两小时以下的马拉松比赛仍然是非常不可能的，到2025年才有超过10%的可能性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS-

CiteScore

2.00

自引率

12.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (JQAS), an official journal of the American Statistical Association, publishes timely, high-quality peer-reviewed research on the quantitative aspects of professional and amateur sports, including collegiate and Olympic competition. The scope of application reflects the increasing demand for novel methods to analyze and understand data in the growing field of sports analytics. Articles come from a wide variety of sports and diverse perspectives, and address topics such as game outcome models, measurement and evaluation of player performance, tournament structure, analysis of rules and adjudication, within-game strategy, analysis of sporting technologies, and player and team ranking methods. JQAS seeks to publish manuscripts that demonstrate original ways of approaching problems, develop cutting edge methods, and apply innovative thinking to solve difficult challenges in sports contexts. JQAS brings together researchers from various disciplines, including statistics, operations research, machine learning, scientific computing, econometrics, and sports management.