Application of Discrete Event Simulation in Mine Production Forecast

F. Kaba, V. Temeng, P. Eshun
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引用次数: 7

Abstract

Mine production forecast is pertinent to mining as it serves production goals for a production period. Perseus Mining Ghana Limited (PMGL), Ayanfuri, deterministically forecasts mine production which sometimes result in significant variation from the actual production. This paper developed an innovative stochastic discrete event simulation model to predict production for two excavators at a pit in PMGL site using Arena ® Software. Time and motion studies of the shovel-truck system were conducted to build the stochastic model and production was predicted for four weeks. The results showed a total average production of 210 414.86 BCM ± 3 301.59 BCM at 95% confidence interval. The total average production reflected a variance of 2.34% from the actual production of 215 341 BCM. The deviation was low as compared to the deterministic planned production variance which was 5.44%. Keywords : Stochastic, Simulation, Deterministic, Production Forecast
离散事件模拟在矿山生产预测中的应用
矿山产量预测服务于一个生产周期的生产目标,与矿山开采息息相关。位于Ayanfuri的Perseus Mining Ghana Limited (PMGL)对矿山产量的确定性预测有时会导致与实际产量的显著差异。本文开发了一种创新的随机离散事件模拟模型,利用Arena®软件预测PMGL现场一个坑的两台挖掘机的产量。对铲车系统进行了时间和运动研究,建立了随机模型,并预测了四周的产量。结果显示,在95%置信区间内,总平均产量为210 414.86 BCM±3 301.59 BCM。总平均产量与实际产量215,341亿立方米的差异为2.34%。与确定性计划生产方差(5.44%)相比,偏差较低。关键词:随机,模拟,确定性,生产预测
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