Analysis of the dynamics and precipitation regime in the cross-border region Poland-Belarus- Ukraine (2010-2018)

Abstract

The work analyzes the dynamics and regime of atmospheric precipitation in the cross-border region of Poland-Belarus-Ukraine during the period 2010-2018. This time period was chosen, in particular, due to the need to find the prerequisites for the strong shallowing of lake complexes and the depletion of groundwater in the Polish region in 2019, which caused significant social and scientific resonance. The source data for the statistical part of the work were archival information from 17 weather stations in the specified region for this period. The main results of the study: 1) the dynamics of the average monthly precipitation amounts for each meteorological station were calculated and analyzed (Lutsk, Svityaz, Manevychi, Kovel, Liubeshiv, Volodymyr, Rivne, Dubno, Sarny, Brody, Rava-Ruska, Kamianka-Buzka, Pinsk, Pruzhany, Terespol, Wlodawa, Zamosc), the average amounts of precipitation that fell during the warm season of the year (IV-X months) and the cold season of the year (XI-III months), average annual precipitation amounts and precipitation amounts for the entire period, which was investigated (2010-2018). All calculated indicators were compared with the data of the climatic norm of 1961-1990). The annual number of days with precipitation, the warm and cold periods of the year, and the average values of this indicator were also determined. Based on the results of the statistical analysis, charts, cartograms, and several diagrams were developed that visually represent the peculiarities of the dynamics of atmospheric precipitation in the studied region during the analyzed period (2010-2018). 2) on the basis of the calculated indicators, maps of the geographical distribution of precipitation amounts on the territory of the cross-border region Poland-Belarus-Ukraine during the studied period (annual amounts, cold and warm season amounts) were constructed. When comparing them with maps of the period of the 20th century. Changes in the geography of distribution and trends of modern growth of precipitation amounts in the study region were revealed. After the analysis, a number of conclusions and generalizations were made: 1. During the period 2010-2018 in the territory of the cross-border region Poland-Belarus- Ukraine, the average annual amounts of precipitation increased by 20-45 mm compared to the climatic standard, while the average annual number of days with precipitation decreased by 25-30%. 2. Annual amounts of precipitation exceeded 600 mm at almost all (16 out of 17) meteorological stations whose data were analyzed. 3. The distribution of days with atmospheric precipitation during the seasons of the year has changed. The ratio between the amounts of precipitation that fell in the warm and cold periods of the year changed from 75/25 to 60/40 on average. In general, in the studied region, there are trends towards a slight increase in annual precipitation amounts, a redistribution of precipitation amounts in liquid and solid state in favor of rains, and a reduction in the total number of days with precipitation during the year and a more even distribution of them during the warm and cold seasons, compared to the climatic norm.