The Impact of the Amino Acids Industry on the U.S. Economy

Ike Brannon, Russell Kashian
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Abstract

Until late 2018, most of China’s amino acid sales occurred in Asia. However, after the African Swine Fever led to the destruction of nearly half of China’s pig population, China's subsidized amino acid industry turned to the United States to sell their products. In 2019, the total U.S. imports of Lysine — a key amino acid — from China tripled over a four-month period, and a year later it doubled again. While China’s pig population almost recovered, U.S. sales of amino acids imported from China remain elevated, especially for threonine, which is typically used for pigs and poultry. China has already established global dominance in threonine, with over 85% of global capacity for this important amino acid. Left unchecked, Chinese domination of key sectors of the U.S.’s amino acids industry would severely damage U.S. production. We estimate that the demise of critical sectors of the U.S. amino acid industry would destroy nearly 30,000 jobs of people in the U.S. who are either involved in amino acid production or have a direct or indirect connection to its production. It would also reduce domestic economic activity by $15 billion a year, with tax revenues at the federal, state and local levels reduced by nearly $9 billion over the next ten years. These trends have created the potential for Chinese manipulation of the markets for these key inputs, which could result in reduced choice for producers and food security issues for U.S. consumers.
氨基酸产业对美国经济的影响
直到2018年底,中国的大部分氨基酸销售都发生在亚洲。然而,在非洲猪瘟导致中国近一半的生猪死亡后,中国受到补贴的氨基酸产业转向美国销售其产品。2019年,美国从中国进口的赖氨酸(一种关键氨基酸)总量在四个月内增加了两倍,一年后又翻了一番。虽然中国的生猪数量几乎恢复了,但从中国进口的氨基酸在美国的销量仍然居高不下,尤其是苏氨酸。苏氨酸通常用于猪和家禽。中国已经确立了苏氨酸的全球主导地位,这种重要氨基酸的产能占全球产能的85%以上。如果放任不管,中国对美国氨基酸产业关键部门的控制将严重损害美国的生产。我们估计,美国氨基酸工业关键部门的消亡将使美国近3万个与氨基酸生产有关或与其生产有直接或间接联系的人失去工作。它还将使国内经济活动每年减少150亿美元,联邦、州和地方各级的税收收入在未来十年减少近90亿美元。这些趋势为中国操纵这些关键投入的市场创造了可能性,这可能导致生产商的选择减少,并给美国消费者带来食品安全问题。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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