The land use impact of renewable energy sprawl in South Africa

Abstract

ABSTRACT The share of renewable energy is expected to increase in South Africa’s energy mix. Motivated by concerns about renewable energy sprawl, this study quantifies the current and future (2050) land requirements for electricity generation in South Africa and evaluates the likely impact on natural biomes. Currently, around 340 km2 has been transformed for electricity generation (mainly coal-powered) and an additional 1 400 km2 is used for spacing requirements. Direct land use is expected to increase to 755–1080 km2 by 2050, and spacing requirements will increase to 10 700–16 750 km2 (0.9–1.4% of South Africa’s land area). South Africa has excellent potential for renewable energy generation, with 36% and 57% of the land area being suitable for solar and wind development, respectively. Assuming that future developments are built on the most suitable land in the Renewable Energy Development Zones, the Nama-Karoo Biome will be most affected. It is concluded that concerns about renewable energy sprawl should not limit South Africa’s renewable energy capacity expansion plans.