Prediction of Developmental Changes due to Climate Change in ‘Delaware’ Grapes in Osaka, Japan, based on Simulated Data

IF 0.3 4区农林科学 Q4 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Jarq-japan Agricultural Research Quarterly Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI:10.6090/jarq.56.389

Masahiro Kamimori, K. Hiramatsu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

study on ‘Delaware’ grape. Abstract We predicted developmental changes (endodormancy breaking, budding, and full-flowering) in ‘Delaware’ grapes induced by climate change in Osaka Prefecture, Japan, to consider adaptation measures. Endodormancy breaking (the day when the accumulation of chilling hours below 7.2°C reached 600 h; DCH600), budding, and full-flowering dates were estimated using models based on air temperature. A projected air temperature dataset until 2100 with 1 km resolution for two emission scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, low; RCP8.5, high) was applied to these models. DCH600 was delayed by 19 (RCP2.6) and 21 (RCP8.5) days in 2041/2042-2050/2051, whereas in 2091/2092-2099/2100, it was projected to be 21 (RCP2.6) and 48 (RCP8.5) days later than that in 1981/1982-1990/1991. Conversely, the budding date was earlier by 6 (RCP2.6) and 7 (RCP8.5) days in 2041-2050 than in 1981-1990. The full-flowering date was earlier by 9 (RCP2.6) and 12 (RCP8.5) days in 2041-2050 than in 1981-1990. Based on these prediction results, it may be possible to sustain ‘Delaware’ grape production until 2050 through advanced cultivation management. However, after 2050 under RCP8.5, delayed DCH600 and inadequate chilling are predicted, necessitating a change in cropping type or conversion to other fruit trees.

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基于模拟数据的日本大阪“Delaware”葡萄因气候变化而发育变化的预测

特拉华葡萄的研究。摘要本研究预测了气候变化对日本大阪府“Delaware”葡萄生长发育的影响(休眠破裂、出芽和开花)，以考虑采取适应措施。内休眠打破(7.2℃以下低温累积小时数达到600 h的一天;DCH600)、萌芽期和全花期使用基于气温的模型进行估算。代表性浓度路径(RCP2.6，低;RCP8.5，高)应用于这些模型。DCH600在2041/2042-2050/2051年被推迟了19 (RCP2.6)和21 (RCP8.5)天，而在2091/2092-2099/2100年，预计比1981/1982-1990/1991年推迟了21 (RCP2.6)和48 (RCP8.5)天。与1981 ~ 1990年相比，2041 ~ 2050年的出芽期分别提前了6 d (RCP2.6)和7 d (RCP8.5)。与1981 ~ 1990年相比，2041 ~ 2050年的花期分别提前了9天(RCP2.6)和12天(RCP8.5)。根据这些预测结果，通过先进的栽培管理，“特拉华”葡萄生产可能持续到2050年。然而，2050年后，在RCP8.5条件下，预测DCH600延迟和冷却不足，需要改变种植类型或转换为其他果树。

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来源期刊

Jarq-japan Agricultural Research Quarterly 农林科学-农业综合

CiteScore

1.00

自引率

25.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>36 weeks

期刊介绍： The Japan Agricultural Research Quarterly (JARQ) is a publication of the Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS), which provides readers overseas with the latest information on key achievements and developments in agricultural research in Japan, with the expectation that this information would contribute to the agricultural development of countries in tropical and subtropical regions.