Perceived racial efficacy and voter engagement among African Americans

Abstract

Political efficacy plays an important role in mediating the relationship between constituents and their government and positively influences turnout in elections. This paper investigates the effect blacks’ perceptions of racism in American institutions and society have on their propensity to vote in the presidential election. We call this measure racial efficacy. We hypothesize that blacks with high feelings of racial efficacy, the perception that American institutions and society operate and disburse justice in a racially equitable manner, the more likely they will be to vote in 2016. Conversely, blacks with low feelings of racial efficacy, who believe that government and society are racially unjust were discouraged from voting. However, we posit that confidence in in-group leaders and movements can counteract the demobilizing effect of low racial efficacy. Our analysis uses data from an African American Research Collaborative (AARC) survey which surveyed 1,200 African American registered voters nationally, with oversamples in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. Regression analysis of voter turnout in 2016 finds that blacks with low feelings of racial efficacy are statistically less likely to vote, all else being equal. We also find support for our in-group confidence theory where having highly favorable attitudes toward Barack Obama, Black Elected Officials, and BLM recovers the propensity to vote for low racial efficacy blacks almost to the levels of their racially optimistic counterparts. This contributes to the literature by further examining the intersections of efficacy, discrimination, and political behavior. * The authors wish to thank Henry Fernandez and the AARC for use of the 2016 and 2017 datasets, and to Prof. Ray Block who worked on the AARC survey projects for his advice and feedback.