Assessments of uncertainties in effective radiation doses to the population in the contaminated regions of the Russian Federation after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident

Abstract

The study is aimed at investigation of the properties of distribution of effective dose convolutions for estimating parametric dependence on the ratio of geometric mean internal radiation doses to external radiation doses and standard geometric mean deviations of lognormal distributions. For research the average annual personal dosimetric information for the period from 1986 over 2022, kept in the database of the National Radiation Epidemiological Register (NRER) was used. Information on internal and external radiation doses received by each resident of 13,000 Russian settlements, the most contaminated with radioactive material from the destroyed Chernobyl NPP is kept in the NRER. The results of the study demonstrated the different values of ratio of geometric mean convolutions of annual radiation doses to effective doses. Their standard deviations are 1.05-1.28 and 2.2-2.8 respectively. The ratio of the arithmetic mean convolutions values to deterministic effective doses stored in the database included in the study is 1.0. With the account of uncertainties included in the estimates of the effective dose and doses of external and internal radiation exposure, the difference between probabilistic and deterministic estimates of effective doses received by the residents of the Russian settlements contaminated with Chernobyl radioactive releases is insignificant.